Health, Safety and SecurityQuantitative Risk Assessment and Consequence Modelling
Quantitative risk assessment converts a hazard into a number that can be compared against a criterion, and the number carries the uncertainty of every assumption behind it, which is why the assumptions matter more than the software. This course covers both. Delegates work through hazard identification feeding a study, failure frequency data and its sources, and consequence modelling for the main outcomes: jet and pool fire, flash fire, explosion overpressure and toxic dispersion. Vulnerability and harm criteria are covered. Individual and societal risk are calculated and presented, including the difference between them and why a societal criterion changes a siting decision. Risk criteria and tolerability follow. The course closes on sensitivity, on communicating uncertainty, and on decisions the numbers should not make alone.
Course objectives
- Scope a study and source credible failure frequency data
- Model jet fire, pool fire, flash fire and explosion consequences
- Model toxic dispersion and its uncertainties
- Apply vulnerability and harm criteria
- Calculate and present individual and societal risk
- Compare results against tolerability criteria
- Test sensitivity and communicate uncertainty honestly
Who should attend
- Process safety engineers and risk analysts
- Design engineers on major hazard facilities
- Regulators assessing safety submissions
- Land use planners near hazardous installations
- Insurers and technical assessors
Course outline
- 01Assumptions matter more than the software
- 02Study scope and hazard identification
- 03Failure frequency data and its sources
- 04Fire consequence modelling
- 05Explosion overpressure
- 06Toxic dispersion
- 07Individual and societal risk
- 08Tolerability, sensitivity and communicating uncertainty
Scheduled sessions
| Dates | Venue | Format | Price | Register |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 to 25 December 2026 | Lagos, Nigeria | Classroom | USD 1,325 per delegate | Register Now |
| 25 to 29 January 2027 | Windhoek, Namibia | Classroom | R19,950 per delegate | Register Now |
| 8 to 12 February 2027 | Online | Online | R8,500 per delegate | Register Now |
| 15 to 19 February 2027 | Pretoria, South Africa | Classroom | R19,950 per delegate | Register Now |
| 8 to 12 March 2027 | Lusaka, Zambia | Classroom | USD 1,325 per delegate | Register Now |
| 22 to 26 March 2027 | Gaborone, Botswana | Classroom | R19,950 per delegate | Register Now |