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AfriScience GroupAfriScienceGroup
Governance and Compliance

Project Analysis: Managing Risk and Uncertainty

This course covers the analytical tools used to evaluate projects where the outcome is genuinely uncertain. Delegates work through decision analysis and decision trees, expected value and its limitations, Monte Carlo simulation applied to cost and schedule, real options thinking for staged investment, and the calibration problem in expert estimates. The course is direct about where quantitative analysis helps and where it produces a number that lends unwarranted confidence to a guess. Delegates build models throughout and finish able to select the right tool for a decision rather than applying the same one to everything.

5 day courseRegister NowRequest Proposal

Course objectives

  • Structure a decision using decision analysis and decision trees
  • Apply expected value correctly and recognise its limitations
  • Run Monte Carlo simulation on cost and schedule
  • Apply real options thinking to staged investment decisions
  • Address calibration and bias in expert estimates
  • Select the appropriate analytical tool for a given decision
  • Communicate an uncertain result without implying false confidence

Who should attend

  • Project and investment analysts
  • Project and programme managers
  • Risk professionals
  • Finance and corporate development staff
  • Engineers and technical staff on capital projects

Course outline

  1. 01Structuring a decision under uncertainty
  2. 02Decision trees and expected value
  3. 03The limitations of expected value
  4. 04Monte Carlo simulation for cost and schedule
  5. 05Distribution selection and correlation
  6. 06Real options and staged investment
  7. 07Calibration and bias in expert estimates
  8. 08Communicating uncertainty without false confidence

Scheduled sessions

Scheduled sessions for Project Analysis: Managing Risk and Uncertainty
DatesVenueFormatPriceRegister
10 to 14 September 2026Durban, South AfricaClassroomR11,995 per delegateRegister Now
25 to 29 September 2026Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaClassroomR11,995 per delegateRegister Now
27 to 31 October 2026Pretoria, South AfricaClassroomR11,995 per delegateRegister Now

Project Analysis: Managing Risk and Uncertainty

From R11,995

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