Drilling and Reservoir Engineering

Production Data Analysis and Decline Curve Forecasting

Many forecasts are still made by drawing a straight line through the last few months of noisy rate data, which can overstate remaining volumes when operating changes are mistaken for reservoir behaviour. Rate and flowing pressure tell a far more reliable story. Delegates begin with cleaning production histories: allocation errors, shut ins and changes in choke or lift. Arps exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic declines are fitted and their assumptions tested, followed by modified hyperbolic and stretched exponential models for low permeability wells. Rate transient analysis using Fetkovich and Blasingame type curves and flowing material balance extracts permeability, drainage area and contacted volume. Type well construction and probabilistic forecasting close the work. Delegates leave able to forecast wells and fields from production data and state their uncertainty.