Finance and TreasuryPetroleum Project Economics and Risk Analysis
This course covers the economic evaluation of upstream petroleum projects under uncertainty. Delegates build cash flow models from production profiles and cost estimates, apply fiscal terms including royalty, tax and production sharing, and evaluate projects using net present value, internal rate of return and the measures used specifically in petroleum. Risk analysis is central: probabilistic reserves, price uncertainty, cost overrun and schedule delay are modelled explicitly rather than absorbed into a single discount rate. Delegates finish able to build a defensible evaluation, run sensitivity and scenario analysis, and present a recommendation with its uncertainty stated honestly.
Course objectives
- Build a petroleum project cash flow model from production and cost inputs
- Apply royalty, tax and production sharing fiscal terms
- Evaluate projects using net present value, internal rate of return and petroleum specific measures
- Model probabilistic reserves and production uncertainty
- Analyse price, cost overrun and schedule risk explicitly
- Run sensitivity and scenario analysis and interpret the results
- Present a recommendation with its uncertainty stated
Who should attend
- Petroleum economists and commercial analysts
- Finance and investment professionals in energy
- Reservoir and development engineers
- Government and regulator staff evaluating projects
- Development finance and lender staff
Course outline
- 01Production profiles, reserves and cost estimation
- 02Cash flow model construction
- 03Fiscal terms: royalty, tax and production sharing
- 04Evaluation measures and their interpretation
- 05Probabilistic reserves and production uncertainty
- 06Price, cost and schedule risk modelling
- 07Sensitivity and scenario analysis
- 08Presenting a recommendation with stated uncertainty
Scheduled sessions
| Dates | Venue | Format | Price | Register |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 to 8 October 2026 | Kampala, Uganda | Classroom | R11,995 per delegate | Register Now |
| 25 to 29 October 2026 | Pretoria, South Africa | Classroom | R11,995 per delegate | Register Now |
| 8 to 12 November 2026 | Cape Town, South Africa | Classroom | R11,995 per delegate | Register Now |
| 2 to 6 December 2026 | Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe | Classroom | R11,995 per delegate | Register Now |